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Compiling More Totals in NFL Football Betting

In NFL football betting perception becomes reality, as the oddsmakers will set their lines and totals not based on what they really should be but on what consumer demand makes them. There is no better example of consumer driven economics and the basic laws of supply and demand than on an NFL football betting board. Nothing is more consumer driven than what the oddsmakers draw up for their lines each and every week.

One of the big misconceptions that so many gambler make when betting pro football is that their expertise at the NFL will make them rich. Expertise in pro football is really no different than “fool’s gold” in the long run. A gambler should always ask himself the question, “What good will all of this fantasy football style knowledge get me if I don’t know how to apply it with the sense of an oddsmaker?”

To win at NFL football betting totals, all a gambler needs is basic/general macro knowledge of pro football. The micro stuff will get him nowhere in the long run. You see, NFL expertise is not what a gambler needs to make money at NFL football betting but instead what is required is an expertise on pro football GAMBLING itself. The NFL bettors that develop the same mentality of an oddsmaker are the ones that will know what to do each week and will make money in the long run.

An excellent lesson in a sportsbook mentality and oddsmaker manipulation of totals and the mass gambling public was the 2005 Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati had an explosive offense that ranked 4th in the NFL for points scored while their defense was abysmal and ranked 28th. Of course, the mass appeal of the Bengals would naturally be on the “over” as gamblers equated their high scoring games to easy cash on the over/under board. Problem is, the oddsmakers were well aware of this reputation amongst the NFL football-betting consumers and thus compensated by setting their over/under lines/prices to cause Cincinnati to go under the total in nine of their sixteen games in 2005!

The Indianapolis Colts entered 2005 with a similar reputation to Cincinnati as another team with a well deserved reputation for having an explosive offense and questionable defense. Now it is true the Indianapolis tightened up their defense for 2005, but nobody really caught on to that or believed in it until far too late in the season. The Colts in 2005 were still an offensive juggernaut finishing 2nd in the league in scoring, while carrying the baggage of fielding poor defenses from their immediate preceding seasons. With such a reputation to begin the season the Colts went under the total in their first five games of 2005 as consumer demand was clearly on the over. Indy finished the season with unders in ten of their sixteen games for the entire regular season.

For those who think like the masses, high scoring teams are simple over plays. But for those with an oddsmaker mentality, high scoring teams will create such high numbers on the NFL football betting boards that they end up as bargain unders!


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