The Problems of Overreaction and Overcompensation

By Tom Wilkinson

One of the keys to winning at sports betting is keeping a level head and for a sports bettor to not take any one factor in and of itself and make it the sole or main reason for a sports betting wager without continuing to take all relevant sports handicapping factors into account.

One of the biggest sports betting traps that can be set is in regards to the reaction of the general sports betting public to a previous game, particularly if it was a high profile game. It is important for a sports bettor to keep in mind and always remember that the sports odds makers also watch and follow the sports and teams that sports bettors watch. It is their livelihoods and in the professional interests of those setting the sports odds to follow all sports betting related activity closely.

Often times after a high profile game sports bettors will overreact either positively or negatively towards the teams involved and the sports odds maker will adjust his lines accordingly, sometimes even to the point of overcompensation.

It is important for sports bettors preparing football picks that rely on such sports handicapping information as won loss records both straight up and against the sports betting line, passing and rushing yardage gained and allowed, turnover margins, penalties, injuries, weather, common opponents, rivalries, paybacks/revenge, let downs and look aheads that the sports odds maker also utilizes all of this sports handicapping information and others as well to prepare his sports odds for the online sportsbooks and casino sportsbooks. There are no secrets or tricks with such common sports betting information.

Another way to put all of this is that it is extremely hard for a sports bettor to use sports handicapping information that is available to the masses to gain an advantage from it. Not only is there nothing original there but, again, we must stress, the sports odds makers are privy to all of it.

A sports bettor preparing his football picks must constantly look for unique information and quickly act on it before its common knowledge.