NFL Football Betting Teams as Stocks

In order for a gambler to successfully develop an oddsmaker’s mentality and separate himself from the masses of NFL football betting losers that are undeniable experts on “football” but clueless on gambler he must develop reading skills on how to read a team as a stock on the open market. The ultimate payoff for a gambler that does this is that he will be taking his NFL football betting to a proactive level that is, more often than not, ahead of the game and curve rather than the all-too-typical reactive approach of the pro football betting masses that are making pro football bets based on what already happened and a mass mentality that everyone has and that the oddsmakers use and exploit to set their lines.

The tiny minority of pro football bettors that actually make a profit at it do so by staying ahead of the NFL nerd herd, by knowing how to read where the “Pack Attack” will go, and then hopping on the other side.

There are few better lessons of reactive thought in NFL football betting than the 2001 New England Patriots. After a suffering through a losing straight up season in 2000, New England started off 2001 with a record of 0-2 both straight up and against the spread. Head coach Bill Belichick, who failed in a previous stint as the head coach with the Cleveland Browns was well on his way to being permanently discredited and the Patriots were unwanted by the NFL football betting masses. For the reactive gambler, New England was an obvious “go against” team that was never to be considered as a team to wager on. Their value could not be seen by the masses. For savvy investment minded bettors, however, New England was a stock that had reached its absolute rock bottom level. Taking the Patriots at this point would be a case of buying low. Opposing them, as the reactive masses did, was a case of buying high.

New England covered three of their next five games after that 0-2 start and then went on to fail just once in their final twelve games against the spread, which included a Super Bowl win and cover over St. Louis. The Patriots remained incredible bargain values even after they caught fire as they were double digit dogs in the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl, as the masses were still far behind the curve and the proactive gamblers with an investor’s mindset were able to ride them to the end, even the many who were initially and understandably skeptical and waited a few weeks before coming into the investment.

This lesson of buying low and selling high doesn’t end with the Patriots’ 2001 Super Bowl season, however, as New England next opened 2002 with two-straight covers. At that moment, just like a stock, the Pats had reached the peak of their value and the typical masses of reactive bettors now arrived far too late, buying high rather than low just like the high tech investors on the stock market in 2000. Now that they were wanted by the masses, the Patriots went on to blow eight of their next nine games against the line.