Betting on NFL Playoff Favorites

When betting on NFL playoff action the best teams usually win and cover the spread. The same thing can’t be said nearly as often about regular season NFL betting. Underdogs cover a lot more in the regular season and favorites lose focus a lot more often.

When you start to look at betting on NFL playoff action you have to begin by looking at the favorite. This is almost an exact reversal of my regular season strategy of starting by looking at the underdog. History has shown us over the years that the better teams usually win in the playoffs. It is not always a given to identify the better teams though. I remember that the Baltimore Ravens, and Carolina Panthers of recent years were not always thought of as the best teams by the oddsmakers, but on the field it was very obvious that they were.

Another thing that makes betting on NFL playoff action different is that it is a one game playoff. There is no look-ahead factor. There is no calling the dogs off. There are no letdowns. All of these are factors in the regular season, but don’t apply in the playoffs. You almost always get teams to focus in the playoffs because if they lose they are out.

Another big factor that is much greater in the playoffs than it is in the regular season is home field. Over the past decade, home teams have covered the spread in the playoffs over 60% of the time. That does not happen during the regular season. Weather can be a big part of that home field edge because teams like Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and New England have the advantage of playing in cold weather. It gives them even more of an edge. If you happen to catch a team at home that is an underdog in the playoffs, and it is rare, they do even better, covering up near 65% of the time.

When it comes to betting on NFL playoff action we have an entire season’s worth of data to go on. Every team has been in nearly every situation and there are not a lot of secrets. That is another reason that the better team usually wins.

Having noticed all of the trends towards the favorites and the home teams, you still don’t want to totally ignore the underdogs. Definitely start by looking at the favorites, but ask yourself this question, “Does the underdog have a chance to win outright?” If the answer you come up with is yes, take the money line as well. Usually when the underdog covers in the playoffs, they also win the game.

Betting on NFL playoff action is definitely something different, and something that can be profitable. Remember to begin your handicapping by first looking at the favorite. If you do that, your chances of making your NFL playoff betting more profitable, has definitely increased.