Smart Money in College Football Betting

By Tom Wilkinson

In college football sports betting, a smart money move would be a shift in the sports betting line of at least one and a half points from the opening sports betting line to the closing sports betting line. A sports betting example would be if Kansas State was favored by 6 points over Missouri with the opening sports betting line posted at online sportsbooks and casino sportsbooks on Sunday Night. If by kickoff on Saturday, Kansas State climbed to an eight and a half point favorite this would be a swing of two and a half points in sports betting money for Kansas State, which caused the sports betting line on them to increase and become much more expensive. Using the smart money theory of sports betting, therefore, Kansas State would be considered the smart money team.

In the same sports betting example of Kansas State and Missouri, however, if late money came in on Missouri that took the sports betting line back down from eight and a half to seven the game would NOT be considered a smart money game because it closed with just a one point differential from the opening sports betting line posted at sports books and online sportsbooks.

Many sports betting studies have been done regarding smart money moves and the results are that smart money moves are no better or worse than the regular sports bettor’s football picks from home when he bets against the sports betting line at online sportsbooks or the sports bettor than hangs at Las Vegas sportsbooks on Saturdays.

In September, at the start of college football season, sports bettors will notice a considerable amount of volatility with the sports betting lines both at casino sportsbooks and online sportsbooks. Much of this has to do with pre season publications touting which college football teams have a lot of returning starters and which teams were depleted by graduation. Many sports bettors fall into the trap of being overly influenced by these reports when making their college football picks against the sports betting line.

As the college football season wears on sports bettors should also be aware of smart money hysteria regarding injuries, coaching rumors, tough losses or big wins from the previous week, teams that may be looking ahead, etc as sports bettors look for edges against the sports betting line.