2005 Toledo Rockets Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

As far as Mid-American Conference teams go, Toledo has emerged in recent years as one of the most respected, as well as one of the most often used MAC teams for sports bettor’s lists of football picks. Incredibly enough, since a 10-1 straight up season in 2000, Toledo has followed that mark with records of 9-2, 9-4, 8-4, and 9-3 and has posted just one losing season against the odds during that span from 2000-2004. Entering the 2004 campaign, Toledo had lost only eight out of twenty-four games to the sports betting line and it was a reasonable assumption that a sports handicapping market correction would occur, but that minority view was hard to find as the general sports betting public view, and views of sports betting bloggers, was that Toledo would again be a MAC title game contender.

In a small way, there was a sports handicapping market correction for Toledo to begin the 2004 season. The Rockets had gained enough esteem and respect that the sports betting odds makers had them over-valued in the season opener at Minnesota, where as 11.5-point dogs they were destroyed 21-63. At traditional Big 12 doormat Kansas in their very next game, Toledo was again over-valued as a 3-point dog and was slaughtered 14-63. To be hammered in such alarming fashion by a middle of the road Big Ten team, and by a losing Big 12 team, dramatically re-corrected the sports handicapping value of Toledo, who again was about to become a bargain.

Once the Rockets returned to the familiar confines of the MAC, they returned to their normal solid level of football. A 42-32 win as 9.5-point chalks at Eastern Michigan served as Toledo’s springboard for redemption as they won five consecutive games both straight up and against the odds, all as favorites to improve their overall record to 5-2 both straight up and against the sports betting line. After a 27-22 home win over Central Michigan as 24-point chalks, Toledo traveled to fellow MAC power Miami of Ohio and lost 16-23 as 5-point dogs. Many wrote off the Rockets after the loss at Miami and used it as an excuse to take another MAC power, Northern Illinois, in Toledo’s very next game in which they were installed as 6.5-point dogs in a 31-17 win, which propelled them into the MAC Championship Game and a rematch with Miami, which they won as 1.5-point dogs. Toledo was installed as 3.5-point chalks by the sports betting odds makers in a 10-39-bowl loss to Cincinnati. Toledo finished 8-5 against the odds, for a third straight profitable season.