2005 SMU Mustangs Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Since their return from the death penalty in 1989 the SMU Mustangs have been perennial doormats regardless of what conference they have played in. As they entered the 2004 campaign, SMU was coming off a string of dreadful seasons in which their highest straight up win total was five, dating back to 1998. From a sports handicapping perspective the picture was even bleaker as the Mustangs posted just seven wins against the odds in their twenty-four games of 2002-2003. SMU suffered the indignity of being a frequent “go against” team posted by the sports betting bloggers. There was little reason to think that 2004 would be much different and the only concern was a potential sports handicapping market correction in which the sports betting odds makers might over-compensate their lines to attract action SMU’s way.

The potential of a sports handicapping market correction looked real enough in SMU’s 2004 season opener against Texas Tech, where as 24.5-home dogs they hung tough and got the money in a 13-27 loss. In their next game at TCU, however, it was back to “business as usual” as SMU was clobbered 0-44 as 23-point dogs. It was more of the same in the Mustangs’ very next game at Oklahoma State, where they were bombed 7-59 was 34.5-point dogs. At this point SMU was 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the sports betting line and once again being prominently mentioned as a “go against” team by the sports betting bloggers, who talked of making SMU’s opponents one of key parts of their list of football picks.

SMU was so totally undesirable that they became quite a bargain in their next game, as 1.5-point home chalks against hopeless and hapless San Jose State, and the Mustangs got the win and the cash with a 36-13 win. Even more impressively, SMU took to the blue carpet at Boise State, a brutal place for even the best teams to play, and as a whopping 38-point dog they got the cash in a 20-38 loss to enter the black with 3 wins against just 2 losses against the odds. Boise topped many sports bettor’s lists of football picks as annihilation was incorrectly anticipated.

SMU’s cover at Boise State ended up having a negative effect, however, as the sports handicapping market turned against them. After blowing up a lot of bankrolls at Boise, SMU dropped three consecutive games against the odds and four of their final six overall to finish in the red once again with a mark of 5-6 against the sports betting line.