2005 San Diego State Aztecs Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The San Diego State Aztecs entered the 2004 season coming off a rare campaign in which they finished in the black by posting a mark of 6-4 against the odds in 2003 for San Diego State’s first year in the black since 1999. The Aztecs followed a bizarre pattern to end up on the plus side in 2003, however, as they beat the sports betting odds in their first three games, then dropped three straight against the pointspread only to rally with three covers in their final four games. San Diego State entered 2004 with scant attention from sports betting bloggers, who didn’t quite know what to make of them.

After a season opening win over 1-AA Idaho State in an unlined game (38-21), San Diego State traveled to “The Big House” to play one of college football’s ultimate “name brand” teams, Michigan. The Aztecs were installed as 20.5-point dogs and, as is often the case for visiting teams to Ann Arbor, were clearly an excellent value because of Michigan’s appeal to sports betting’s masses of asses who cant begin to comprehend college football value against the odds or competent sports handicapping techniques for NCAA football. San Diego State got the cash in a 21-24 loss. They followed up that good performance at Michigan with a 27-10 home win and cover as 14.5-point home chalks against Nevada to stand at 2-1 straight up and 2-0 against the odds. The Aztecs, at this point, had a modest streak of five wins in their last six games against the odds dating back to 2003. With this success came extra attention as sports betting bloggers began to believe in San Diego State, particularly for their next game at UCLA against a Bruin team that had gotten the cash in just seven of their last twenty-two games against the odds.

San Diego State’s game at UCLA was a classic sports handicapping lesson on value and perception as the Aztecs were bet down to just a 6-point puppy against the Bruins, and were clobbered 10-33. The ultimate lesson from this game is that it is important for a sports bettor not to “step out” with football picks on teams from a lower class without getting full value on the sports betting odds.

San Diego State’s loss at UCLA began a violent sports handicapping market correction in which they lost six consecutive games against the odds and finished 2004 in the red at 4-6.