Purdue Boilermakers Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Purdue entered the 2004 season full of high hopes and expectations of a Big Ten championship. One point of contention, however, amongst those doing a thorough sports handicapping review of the Boilermakers was the fact that Purdue had beaten the sports betting odds in sixteen of their previous twenty-two games entering the 2004 campaign, which was a clear indication of a probable sports betting market correction.

Incredibly, however to start the 2004 season, Purdue managed to start out 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the odds, increasing their roll against the odds makers to nineteen wins out of their last 26 games. At this point both in the regular sports media and at online sports betting blogs Purdue was considered a legitimate Rose Bowl contender and a top ten team in the national rankings. With down and out Penn State calling for game five, Purdue’s 10-point spread as favorites seemed reasonable to many members of the sports handicapping fraternity. A few skeptics pointed out, however, that Purdue was coming off an always-emotional game against Notre Dame, which they won 41-16 as 2.5-road chalks, and were ripe for a letdown spot. Purdue was flat against Penn State and could only manage a 20-13 win.

The real shocker came the following week, however. In a first place showdown against Wisconsin, Purdue was installed as 7-point home chalks by the sports betting odds makers. The Boilermakers were touted as having the superior team and edge due to Wisconsin’s stodgy offense, which was not expected to keep pace with the high-flying Boilermakers. Most of the general sports betting public was all over Purdue in a game billed as the biggest on their campus in decades. Many online sports betting blogs touted Purdue as the team to head anyone’s list of football picks for that weekend. Incredibly, however, too many sports bettors ignored that fact that Wisconsin had one of the nation’s toughest defenses, and it was that defense that sparked a 20-17 upset win by the Badgers.

Purdue never fully recovered from that loss to Wisconsin and ended up losing five consecutive games against the odds after their big win at Notre Dame, which is a great sports handicapping lesson on market corrections. Purdue, in fact, was 2-6 against the odds after their 3-1 start against the number as they went from being overvalued to ending up as a potential bargain to start 2005.