2005 North Carolina State Wolfpack Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

After a remarkable 2002 season in which they went 11-3 straight up and 9-3 against the odds the North Carolina State Wolfpack has clearly become an underperforming and overvalued team against the odds. State has, in fact, beaten the sports betting odds in just six of their last nineteen games, which is a clear demonstration of their lack of sports handicapping value.

State entered the 2004 campaign coming off three consecutive winning seasons in which they went to bowls. This success, overtime, began to take root with the general sports betting public that used to ignore the Pack, but now began to consider them routinely to make their lists of football picks against the online sports betting boards and casino sportsbooks.

After an easy 42-0 opening game win over 1-AA Richmond, (a game that was not lined by the sports betting odds makers), State was to next host Ohio State in a highly touted and much anticipated rematch from 2003 in which the Wolfpack lost a 38-44 heartbreaker at the famed Horseshoe in overtime. Many NC State fans had been pointing to this game for a year since that defeat, as had many players. The hype regarding this game became ridiculous from a sports handicapping perspective as many online sports betting blogs were featuring numerous boastful claims on how NC State was a “revenge lock” and should be at the top of anyone’s list of football picks that weekend. Many sports services and tout sheets made NC State their play/lock of the week. In this situation many veterans of sports handicapping could sense trouble and a potential trap. The herd/pack mentality of general sports bettors going over to NC State without a full evaluation coupled with sports services copycatting each other usually spelled DISASTER for those who followed. North Carolina State was bet all the way up as 2.5-point home chalks, a clear indication of horrible value and a line that had no basis of reality. Sure enough, Ohio State won 22-14 as the pack of lemmings went off the cliff yet again.

Incredibly enough, now that everyone had written them off, NC State rallied the very next week with a 17-16 win at highly regarded Virginia Tech as 7.5-point dogs. That was, unfortunately, the high point of the season for the Wolfpack as they dropped six of their final eight games against the odds, finishing 3-7 against the line as the sports handicapping value equation for this team evened out from prior years.