2005 New Mexico State Aggies Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

New Mexico State has served as a solid sports handicapping example of sports betting market corrections since the 2000 season. After dropping their first three games against the odds in 2000 they went on to six of their last eight to finish the season. The upward swing continued in 2001 with five wins against the odds in their first eight games before they lost their final four games against the pointspread to complete the season. In 2002 the sports handicapping market correction continued as New Mexico State lost nine out of twelve games versus the sports betting odds, making for a string of thirteen failures in sixteen games. That streak was extended to five out of twenty-two failures against the sports betting line in 2003 as the Aggies dropped four of their first six games versus the line. By this time they were fully labeled at the online sports betting blogs as “losers” and a solid “go against” team for anyone’s lists of football picks. With their sports handicapping reputation, or lack thereof, fully ensconced, a market correction was likely and well over due. Sure enough, with nobody wanting them on their lists of football picks, (except in opposition), New Mexico State covered four of their final five games in 2003. This did little, however, to enhance their reputation at the online sports betting blogs as they entered the 2004 campaign.

In their 2004 opener at Arkansas, it appeared as if the Aggies were attempting to return to everyone’s “A” lists of “go against” football picks as they were hammered 13-63 as 20.5-point dogs. This slaughter served a perverse purpose of enhancing their value because they were so completely unappealing at this point. At Cal, the Aggies were installed as a ridiculous 36-point dog in a 14-41 loss. In their home opener against Troy, they won straight up 22-18 as 9.5-point dogs. Just as they started to become a possible sports handicapping value team in the eyes of many observers, however, New Mexico State went back into the tank as they were clobbered 3-38 as small 6-point home dogs against New Mexico. After a 0-45 loss at Texas El Paso as 7.5-point dogs the Aggies were written off by the sports betting bloggers, who correctly pointed out their lack of value in those two failures.

With a mark of 2-3 against the odds, and coming off consecutive ugly losses, New Mexico State offered no sports betting appeal. They went on to beat the sports betting odds in four of their final six games to finish 6-5 against the sports betting line.