2005 New Mexico Lobos Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The New Mexico Lobos, beginning in 2000, began a dramatic sports handicapping market correction that still hasn’t fully been detected by the general sports betting public. After decades of being an afterthought, as well as perennial doormat, New Mexico began a substantive change with their football program that culminated with consecutive bowl appearances in 2002 and 2003. While many sports betting bloggers have started to take notice of New Mexico they have remained somewhat of a secret to the overall general sports betting public.

In 2000 New Mexico beat the sports betting odds in seven of their final nine games. After stumbling out of the gate in 2001 with just one cover in their first five games, the Lobos rallied to get the cash in five of their final six games. They started slow again in 2002 with just one payoff in their first five games before rallying to beat the sports betting odds in their final five consecutive regular season games before losing in the Las Vegas Bowl 13-27 as overvalued 10.5-point chalks against UCLA. The Lobos repeated with a similar pattern in 2003 as they beat the sports betting odds in six of their final seven games after failing to get the cash in their opening two games. They then dropped their bowl game 15-55 as 2.5-dogs to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Still, the Lobos entered the 2004 season with four consecutive years in the black and many sports betting bloggers considered them to now be “legit” and a team to keep in mind for their lists of football picks.

New Mexico began the 2004 season in typical fashion, with a 17-21 loss as 3-point home dogs to Washington State. But a stunning 27-24 win over Texas Tech as 4.5-point dogs gave them redemption in the eyes of many sports bettors. This win sparked a considerable amount of attention at online sports betting blogs and New Mexico went on to beat the pointspread in their next two games at Oregon State and New Mexico State to stand at 3-1 against the sports betting line.

As the “word” got out about New Mexico at online sports betting blogs, their value against the odds decreased and they failed to get the cash in their next two games. They then proceeded, however, to beat the sports betting odds in four consecutive games and were once again on the “A” lists of football picks for many bettors. Standing at 7-3 against the odds, they failed to get the cash in their final 2 games.