2005 Navy Midshipmen Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Navy, much like Army, had fallen on extremely hard times and was a humiliating 3-30 straight up from 2000-2002, finishing in the red against the sports betting line each season in the process. When Paul Johnson took over as head coach for the 2002 season, his task was monumental and looked to be impossible. Navy went 0-10 straight up and 4-6 against the odds the prior year and slowly took to Johnson. After a stunning 38-7 win at SMU as 10.5-point dogs to start the Johnson era, Navy returned to its bad old habits and without any sports handicapping value as they failed to get the cash in their next six games against the odds. With their value completely shot and just seven wins in their last 23 games against the odds Navy began a strong sports handicapping market correction as they ended 2002 with four wins against the odds in their final six games. The correction continued in 2003 as they got the cash in nine of their first ten games to extend their streak to 13 wins out of 16 games. As 12-point dogs in the Houston Bowl against Texas Tech, however, their value was used up and they lost 14-38. Still, Johnson had led an impressive turnaround and sports betting bloggers respected Navy and were not afraid to include them on their lists of football picks.

Navy started 2004 right where they left off from 2003’s breakthrough season with a 27-12 win over Duke as 7.5-point home chalks and then beat Tulsa, a 2003 bowl team, in their next lined game 29-0 as 1-point road dogs. sports betting bloggers were posting glowing notes about Navy as the Midshipmen had now covered 15 of their last 19 games against the sports betting line. But as 8-point home chalks against Vanderbilt they failed to get the cash in a 29-26 win, showing their first sign of a slowdown and a potential sports handicapping market correction. After beating Air Force and getting the cash 24-21 as 1-point road dogs the Midshipmen were set to take on Notre Dame as 6-point dogs at Giants Stadium in a neutral site game. Navy was highly touted by a lot of sports betting bloggers and sports services who had them at the top of their lists of football picks but proved to be overvalued in a 9-27 loss. They then failed to cover their next two lined games after Notre Dame, as there was something of a letdown and hangover from that loss. With their value then restored the Navy finished strong with three consecutive wins and covers against the odds including a 34-19 triumph in the Emerald Bowl as 2.5-point dogs against New Mexico to finish the season 10-2 straight up and 6-4 against the odds. Navy ended with 17 covers in their last 23 games.