2005 Michigan Wolverines Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Few teams in college football have proven to be worse values than the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan has posted just one winning season against the odds in their last four, and is continually overpriced as home chalks. The reason for Michigan’s lack of sports handicapping production is really quite simple; they are one of college football’s biggest “name brand” teams. To put it another way, ignoramuses that have little in depth knowledge about college football end up having teams like Michigan, Miami, and Notre Dame on their lists of football picks because these teams are famous and well-known. Yes, it’s moronic and idiotic, but also REAL. But the sharper members of the sports handicapping fraternity have been taking advantage of the value that this ends up creating against the odds.

Michigan began 2004 as a 13-point home chalk against a highly respected Mid American Conference team, Miami of Ohio, and won 43-10. But up next was a “Name Brand Bowl” matchup at Notre Dame. Michigan has proven to be a poor double-digit favorite through the years, their cover against Miami notwithstanding, and they were made 12-point chalks at Dame as the Irish were coming off an embarrassing loss at BYU. This was a clear case of public overreaction to one game and the sports betting odds makers ruthlessly exploited it, as Notre Dame won 28-20.

Michigan next returned to form as 20.5-point home chalks against lightly regarded San Diego State, winning by a slim 24-21 margin. Next, they failed, yet again, as double digit chalks (-13.5) in a 30-17 home win over Iowa. After three consecutive losses against the odds Michigan’s value became a little better and they won at Indiana 35-14 as 18-point chalks. At this point Michigan was 4-1 straight up and 2-3 against the odds and preparing to meet Minnesota, who was seeking revenge for a devastating home loss to UM from 2003 in which the Gophers blew a huge 4th quarter lead. Michigan escaped with a 27-24 win as 3.5-chalks, and then failed to cover in a win at Illinois.

Michigan was about to enter their best role, however, that of underdog. The Wolverines got 4-points at Purdue and won 16-14. They also beat the sports betting odds in the Rose Bowl as 7-point dogs in a 37-38 loss to Texas. Michigan was 2-0 as a dog in 2004, while going a poor 3-7 as chalks, burning many lists of football picks for unsophisticated bettors