2005 Miami Hurricanes Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Few teams in all of sports are better examples of being a “name brand” outfit than college football’s Miami Hurricanes. A perennial national championship contender, the Canes are routinely overvalued, particularly in television games, as the sports betting odds makers adjust and inflate their lines to meet the usual general public’s appetite for action on the Canes. Miami entered 2004 coming off back to back losing seasons against the odds, which followed their 2001 national championship season as the sports betting market was correcting itself.

The one role in which a sports bettor can still get sports handicapping value from Miami is when they are a small favorite. When this happens, it means that Miami is up against another strong team that the masses of asses respect and are familiar with, thus protecting the sports betting value of the Canes. This was the case in Miami’s season opener at home against Florida State in which they were installed as 2-point home chalks by the sports betting odds makers. Miami prevailed 16-10 in a nationally televised affair. The Canes followed up with a 48-0 bombing of Louisiana Tech as 29.5-point home favorites, which set up their value depletion in their next game as 29-point road chalks at Houston, where they won by only a 38-13 margin.

Another role where Miami can occasionally provide sports handicapping value is as a road chalk laying two touchdowns or less and they excelled again in this role, winning at Georgia Tech 27-3 as 14-point road chalks. This improved Miami to 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the odds, along with top national ranking in most polls.

Up next was a Thursday Night ESPN feature game against surging Louisville. Miami was clearly overvalued as 9.5-point home chalks but the general public couldn’t stomach taking Louisville, who should have won but lost late 38-41, which began a streak in which Miami dropped three of their next four against the odds. Miami lost two of those games straight up, which set up a value correction against the odds as the public began to cool on the Canes somewhat. With the general sports betting public off of them, Miami won their next two games both straight up and against the odds, which set up the ACC championship game at home versus Virginia Tech. With the sports betting public back on them, however, Miami lost 10-16 as 7-point chalks.