2005 Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

College football programs such as Kentucky can often be “sleepers” as sports handicapping values, as these type of teams, traditionally weak and perennial losers, often sneak under the sports betting radar screen and win cash as they lose games, often because the general sports betting public associates them with failure and lacks the sophistication to realize that these teams are often great values against the odds. Starting with the second half of the 2001 season and ending at the halfway point of the 2003 season, Kentucky put together a phenomenal string of nineteen wins out of 25 games against the odds, which was a whopping .760 success rate during that span, despite being 11-14 straight up in those games. This is a classic demonstration of reality trumping sports handicapping perception. By the last four weeks of 2003, however, the “secret” was out amongst sports bettors and Kentucky’s success against the odds began to be discussed at online sports betting blogs. Kentucky had been on the lists of football picks for many of the hard-core members of the sports handicapping fraternity. Now that more people were “on” to them, the Wildcats were way past due for a sports betting market correction.

Starting with an epic multiple overtime-home loss at home to Arkansas that was an “Instant Classic” on ESPN Classic, Kentucky lost their final four games of 2003 against the odds and, thus, entered the 2004 season with little in the way of expectations and scant attention at the online sports betting blogs.

After a season opening 0-28 loss at Louisville as 9.5-point dogs, the Wildcats beat the sports betting odds in their next two games before a disastrous home game in which, as 13-point chalks, they lost to Ohio straight up 16-28. This was the end of Kentucky for all intents and purposes in 2004.

The loss to Ohio began a 1-5 slide against the odds by Kentucky. Combined with their 0-4 finish against the number in 2003, Kentucky had lost 3 out of 13 games against the online sports betting sites and casino sportsbooks. With their value completely shot, however, they rebounded by winning their final two games of the season against the odds to finish 2004 with a mark of 5-6 against the pointspread. With the sports betting public perception of them again as losers, Kentucky may offer early value in 2005.