2005 Illinois Illini Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

After their stunning Big Ten Conference championship in 2001 the Fighting Illini of Illinois suffered an immediate slide beginning in 2002 with straight up records of 5-7, 1-11, and finally 3-8 in 2004, which resulted in the firing of head coach Ron Turner. In 2003 Illinois dropped their last ten games of the season both straight up and against the odds, which completely turned off the general sports betting public from including the Illini on their list of football picks, thus, increasing Illinois’ potential sports handicapping value entering the 2004 season.

After a non-lined opening win against Florida A&M, the Illini dropped their first two games against the odds to increase their winless streak to twelve games against the line. After covering as 21.5-point home dogs in a 30-38 home loss to Purdue, Illinois dropped three of their next four games against the odds. This gave Illinois a record of 1-14 against the pointspread in their last 15 games dating back to 2003. The simple law of sports handicapping averages dictated that no matter how bad Illinois was, there would be a correction at online sportsbooks and sportsbooks. The very fact that Illinois was considered toxic by the general sports betting public was about to turn them into a good bargain.

In their next game at home against Michigan, after a week in which both the general media and online sports betting blogs included numerous stories and posts about the likely firing of Turner, Illinois rose to the occasion with a full effort, before losing 19-30 as 18.5-point dogs. After getting clobbered 0-45 as 18-point dogs at Minnesota, Illinois was, again, written off as a serious candidate to appear on the list of football picks by even the more knowledgeable sports bettors.

In their next game against surging Iowa, Illinois was established as 12-point home dogs and came within that number in a 13-23 loss. The game was a good sports handicapping spot to take Illinois as (1) nobody gave them a chance and (2) Iowa was coming off high profile wins over Ohio State and at Penn State, making them ripe for a letdown.

Illinois next hosted a team in even worse shape than they were, the Indiana Hoosiers. The Illini prevailed 26-22 as 2.5-point chalks. In their finale they lost 21-28 as 12.5-point dogs at Northwestern. Illinois ended up beating the sports betting odds in four of their last five games after being written off.