2005 Florida State Seminoles Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The Florida State Seminoles have gone from a solid sixty-percent type money machine against the odds to, at best, a break-even proposition. Florida State was once one of the most reliable college football teams for a sports bettor to have on his list of football picks but a combination of improved competition, proper line adjustments by the sports betting odds makers, and a slippage in recruiting and overall performance have made the Seminoles less appealing from a sports handicapping perspective.

Florida State has maintained one level of reliability, however, and that is in their annual struggle against Miami. In their 2004 season opener, the Seminoles lost to the Hurricanes as 2.5-point dogs 10-16, maintaining the “money in the bank” sports handicapping theory of always taking Miami in this matchup.

Florida State bounced back strong with a pair of wins, both straight up and against the online sports betting odds, over Alabama-Birmingham and Clemson. This set up a home game against a struggling North Carolina team that the Seminoles have dominated over the years. The combination of Florida State’s strong recovery from the loss at Miami and the Tar Heels struggles inflated the sports betting line way beyond where it belonged and Florida State was bet up to a 28.5-point favorite while managing only a 38-16 win.

Florida State’s failure against the odds against North Carolina began a slump against the pointspread that would last for the remainder of the season as the Seminoles beat the sports betting odds just twice in their final eight games.

It is interesting to note that in their two wins against the odds during that string, the Seminoles were installed as favorites of less than seven points both times in high profile showdowns against Virginia (-3) at home and at North Carolina State (-6.5).

Florida State was installed as 9-point favorites in the Gator Bowl against West Virginia won 30-18. The sports handicapping dynamics have changed for the Seminoles and sports handicapping methodology on this team will have to be altered in order to make for safe football picks.