2005 Cincinnati Bearcats Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The Cincinnati Bearcats spent their final season in Conference USA with a new head coach, Mark Dantonio, who replaced ten-year head man Rick Minter. This change in coaches and upcoming switch to the Big East Conference for 2005 had many members of the sports handicapping community taking a wait and see approach to including Cincinnati on any of their lists of football picks.

Cincinnati began the Dantonio era with a tough assignment as 14-point dogs at highly touted Big Ten power Ohio State. These types of games either draw a lot of sports betting action on the “power” team, in this case Ohio State, or passes from sports bettors. Cincinnati avoided a blowout but lost 6-27, failing to get the cash as well. The home opener was next against a solid Miami of Ohio team and the Bearcats gave Dantonio his first win as coach 45-26 as 3.5-point home dogs.

Next came a big test, Cincinnati was installed as a 2-point favorite at future Big East rival Syracuse, who was struggling. This was the type of game that many members of the college football sports handicapping community would say “doesn’t feel right.” Having a rather anonymous CUSA favored at a Big East team (even one that was struggling) just looks bizarre. Syracuse won 19-7, which was the start of a 1-3 straight up stretch for the Bearcats, who stood at mid season with a record of 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the odds. The final loss of that streak was a 29-48 debacle at Army, in which the Bearcats were 15-point road chalks.

At this point Cincinnati, a team that gets little sports handicapping attention as it is, really became quite a value against the odds. Conference USA games are generally bet either by professional “wise guy/sharps” or by the general sports betting public that will usually make their football picks on the better known team, which is usually the favorite. With no real interest in them, Cincinnati was primed for a sports betting market correction. Cincinnati won and covered their next four games against the odds to climb to 6-4 straight up and 5-5 against the sports betting line. This made them more interesting to sports betting bloggers, many of whom posted that they were a good value as 22.5-point road dogs at Louisville. The Bearcats were bombed 70-7 at Louisville, and many reactive sports bettors were several weeks late and many dollars short by that time. Cincy won and covered the Ft. Worth Bowl.