2005 Ball State Cardinals Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

Dating back to their final two games of the 2001 season, Ball State had beaten the sports betting odds in eleven out of sixteen games through the fourth week of their 2003 season. After splitting their next four games against the sports betting line the Cardinals failed to get the money in their final four games of 2003, as the sports betting market corrected itself. As the Mid-American Athletic Conference receives more and more sports handicapping attention and notoriety from sports bettors, the fact remains the perennial MAC losers such as Ball State rarely appear on anyone’s list of football picks, except perhaps as a “go against” team. That figured to be the case again in 2004 as, for better or worse, most members of the sports betting community immediately think “opposition” when they hear the name Ball State. This negative prejudice can, at times however, add sports handicapping value to the Cardinals.

Ball State was clearly a good value as 17.5-point home dogs versus Boston College to open the 2004 season and got the money in an 11-19 loss. They then hit the road for two extremely difficult games, against perennial Big Ten contender and bowl team Purdue and a Missouri team coming off a bowl season and being touted as a serious contender in the Big 12 North. As 30.5-point dogs Ball State was humiliated in a 7-59 loss to Purdue and then, as 27.5-dogs, they were blown out by Missouri 0-48. At this point Ball State was a MAC team that stood at 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the odds which is another way of saying the had absolutely no appeal within the sports handicapping community. What few online sports betting blogs that did refer to Ball State referred to them as “go against” material.

Hosting Western Michigan in their conference opener, as 3.5-point dogs, Ball State pulled off a 41-14 upset win, but then dropped its next four consecutive games both straight up and against the spread to stand at 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the odds heading into the home stretch.

Incredibly, as 20.5 home dogs in their next game, they took MAC power Northern Illinois to overtime in a 31-38 loss, and followed that with a 21-17 home win over Central Florida as 3.5-chalks. In their season finale at Central Michigan, Ball State got the money in a 40-41 loss as 3.5-dogs, completing a sports handicapping market correction of three wins.