2005 Air Force Falcons Handicapping Review
By Tom Wilkinson
Air Force has been a great case study and example of the
continuing fluctuation of sports handicapping value and market
corrections. In 2000 Air Force went 8-3 against the odds with
five consecutive covers to end the season. Just as they began
to be considered a great sports handicapping “sleeper”
team their value plummeted in 2001 as they went 3-8 against
the odds. After being written off by many sports betting bloggers
following that disastrous campaign, Air Force regained its
sports handicapping value and covered its first 6 games against
the pointspread to start 2002. Now, once again, many sports
betting bloggers considered the Falcons an outstanding value
and a team to include on one’s “A” list
of football picks. After sucking in a lot of believers, however,
the Falcons dropped three straight and four of their final
six games against the odds to conclude the 2002 regular season.
With the general sports betting public having turned on them,
yet again, they covered as 11.5-point dogs in the San Francisco
Bowl versus Virginia Tech in a 13-20 loss. Unfortunately for
most sports bettors, Air Force was on few lists of bowl football
picks that year due to their weak finish. In 2003 Air Force
was 4-7 against the odds, which kept them under the general
sports handicapping radar screen entering the 2004 season.
Few online sports betting blogs mentioned Air Force as a team
that would appear on many lists of football picks.
After getting clobbered 14-56 in their season opener at Cal
as 14-point dogs, Air Force was written off by many of the
sports betting bloggers who vowed to have them on their “go
against” lists of football picks for the remainder of
the 2004 season. After an unlined 42-20 home win over 1-AA
Eastern Washington, Air Force covered their next two games
as road dogs. First, they defeated UNLV 27-10 as 6.5-point
dogs and then got the cash in a 35-49 loss at Utah as 21.5-point
pups. This gave Air Force two covers in three games against
the odds and now the same sports betting bloggers that wrote
them off after the Cal opener were proclaiming Air Force as
a solid value to consider for one’s lists of football
picks.
Air Force was a difficult team to get a sports handicapping
read on for the rest of 2004 as they developed no noticeable
pattern against the odds and finished with four losses against
the line in their final seven games, finishing with a 5-5
break even mark against the odds for 2004.
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